WE ARE ADDRESSING TO THE 150 DAYS MOVING AVERAGE

I know I did not put any post since a lot of days. The reason I have been busy travelling and filled up of work.

Meanwhile I bought 3 stocks and one 2xbull ETF in this “bull” market:

Natural Gas.
Bank
Renewable energy

Till now it has worked and I recovered about 20% of the losses, I know not much but this is the last movement profitable for me in the last 2 months.

Technically the situation is not good. We are below the 15 day moving average and it is flattening but none technical indicator says to me buy. Why did I buy then?

Obama and his friends have convinced me. They are determined to avoid the market will visit the past lows.

No matter the money, the meetings, the summits the inflation… Bernake has a nice school book and I have been reading. I know what he thinks about 1936 and he is doing all he can. I can not sit and wait cause if Bernake succeeds I will be much poorer than now. My salary will be left behind the inflation and my money for my kids University will vanish.

SO I keep trying surfing in the news, but with tights stops losses (except in the ETF…..)

My Sister is lucky the banks are still going up.

I will type a littlemore if I have time this week.

Why we do not have a signal of inflation in gold price

I went out of my shorting. I was smashed by the market.

I fell into the trap because I did not have time to read some news. Now I m reading a lot and I found this:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/G20-supports-IMF-plan-raise/story.aspx?guid={5ABAE8F2-060D-44BC-9905-EB79665AEACE}

As a help to understand what is happening, I tell you that the quantity of the new gold from mining is about 2% per year. The central banks with their selling of gold have flatten the price during the past years, if they did not do that, the price of gold will have risen sharply from 1999 cause the money supply has been impressive.

The goverment is trying we do not realize of the signal of inflation that gold was sending, and with this actitude they are trying to avoid new fresh money going in to gold market.

I am worried about inflation and the politicians are trying to direct our money to the stock market.

I do not trust, I am not sure waht I should do. I am in cash now.

Do you know what to do?

Looking for a double bottom?

Look to this chart from this web You can also take a look in the volume.

http://stockcharts.com/index.html.

NOT DOLLAR, NOT AMERO what will be?

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time." Abraham Lincoln.

It has began.
Geithner and Obama are taking a lot of risk, or peraps not actually they are trying to back up the investors risk that will buy the toxic assest with the money of the Americans. With the last plan they have pumped in the system about 1600$ per American.

The petrol barrel jumped about 10$, or perhaps we should say dollar went down. So if I were a chinese politician whom country possess a lot of dollars as foreings reserves I would be really angry.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/26884e1e-18ab-11de-bec8-0000779fd2ac.html

I told you that dollar should go up. This is the first reason, but the second is that USA economy is going to be more depressed and no dollars will go into the monetary market except if chineses decided to get ride of them. If chineses decide that, the dollar will go down and the USA economy will take off on the long term but China competitiveness will shrink instantaneously.


Do you kow which is the country that still has gold as reserve? Germany !!!!

What are thinking the chineses? I think they are right, they need an stop loss for theirs stock of US Treasuries.

Look the comment of Tim Duy, perhaps the Fed should leave the stock market to fell down instead of triggering the collapse of confidence in the dollar.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/03/24/secondary-sources-geithner-plan-hope-it-works-fed-relations/

I am really afraid of the last decision of Geithner and I am suspicious about his interest in seizeing non-bank financial companies but sure he is trying to save us.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/24/AR2009032400847.html?hpid=topnews

Economy lost its bearings. Our investment comunity is thinking in going out of the market, not buyin not selling short, the impact of our decision will be showed, our confidence in the game rules are vanishing.

INSANE PSICOLOGY FOR A BEAR MARKET

The US government will announce tomorrow 22/03/2009 the plan to try to get bad assets off the books of the banks. The Wall Street Journal and the New York Times reported it on Friday.

Actually the recession is deepening and politicians are aware of it. So they have established a schedule to avoid the stock market to go down more. Bernake knows that the only way to fight against deflation is to show to the people they are going to create inflation. We know that politicians cannot do nonsense, so they cannot give money, although they are doing that

As things are going worse, that means that normal people are not believing they can create inflation in the short term, so long term investing decision are expecting how things develop.

Politicians are going to show us how insane they are, because we know that creating a superinflation time is worst than a small period of deflaction. Past week the have used a lot of power an tomorrow you will see another attempt but I think we have had enough. The figures are so big none of us can realize what that mean; we only feel Main Street and follow Wall Street through the news. The result is that everybody is confused, nobody knows if the market will go up or down, (but the dollar will go up, I will tell you about this a few days later). If you think you are confused look to this and you will be more confused http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/tuesday.htm

What I know is that my sister has bought bank stocks and she caught the bounce after some days of suffering. So she is delighted and I am telling her "sell", every time I see her. She has put a buying order expecting for an additional 20% up. My friends have bought stocks and I am the only one that is loosing in this moment, (about 10% in SDS as I opened the shorting position I wrote).

Confidence is really high, I am a bit afraid of going against the crowd but they are very sure and when everybody is sure of something market will tend to show them they are not right. I have not executed my stops cause I was on vacation and I loosened them to avoid an unexpected closing.

Tomorrow is Monday, on Friday market has gone down and usually it should go up if we were bullish. Tomorrow it will go down. Remember buy with the rumours and sell before the news. I am still shorting and the only effect I expect from the uptick rule is a decrease in the volatility and that will happen in April the 9th, but we are still bearish. Look to the slow-stock, the AD line, the 150 average, the politicians fear and the low fear of the people.

The signal that will trigger the downward leg will be inflexion of the put/call ratio. If every things develops as the market shows now we will see the buying signal in 2 months.

Open wide your eyes, not always you know what I happening in the economy.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NMu1mFao3w&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Erankia%2Ecom%2Fblog%2Fdalamar%2F2009%2F03%2F18%2Dde%2Dseptiembre%2Dde%2D2008%2Dla%2Deconomia%2Ehtml&feature=player_embedded

WILL SP500 GO UP OR DOWN?

Althoug the market for stocks is upwardly biases over long term periods, 1/3 of the time it is headed downside. Remember that stock fall faster than they go up, fear is the driver.

We are in the same point that we were on Friday when we sold short.

You have to relize that the monetary ammunition is exhausted, Bernake has worked hard in the theater of the media and the G20 preparation meeting also has trigered the upward movement in Europe today. Fortunalely not all the people is telling us stories Paul Krugman hast told to the European what is expected for them, ..., and also for us.

The AD-line has gone up while the SP has gone down, that means more falling. Friday will be very dangerous, weak hands are buying stocks trusting in the words of politicians.

Perhaps in April the trend could change, but today this is fiction.

I hope that the rain of news do not make my stop loss to execute.

Today was a day to test your mind control. We sold short on Friday on 750, so we are not profiting and today you have seen 4% looses in some intraday moments. Why did you not sell? Only because your cortex was controlling the situation, there was a reasoning for not acting.

But buddy, sell your bank stocks, you will sleep better.

Will the uptick rule affect to us?

This rule was created in 1938, perhaps we are following the same patern. Some people is telling that and David Scarica has compared it and was expecting a bounce some weeks ago based on this asumption.

Mean while I type about this rule you can take a look in

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/uptickrule.asp

That is not too much is only a an "antipasto"

SP500 SAID TODAY BEGIN THE SHORTING

Well today I bough and ETF called Proshares ultrashort SP500.

The definition says it seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond
to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the S&P 500 Index.

My bought was not very good because I have done with a value of 91.7 per share (SP 500 about 750), so in the moment I am typing this, I am loosin about 2%. I do not like to open a position with losses but that is what it is. Today it is Friday and usually on March and Friday the stockmarket goes up I did not catch the intraday top.

On top of that we have had 4 days going upwards. Today it is supposed we should have an intraday top and we should close a bit below. If that happens on Monday I expect the beging of a new down leg.

My stop loss is 6 % below the entry point.

Realy the signal for beginig to short was not very clear, there is a lot of noise and something that is very surprising is that the volumen is very high. So I think that the strong hands are giving paper to the hungry weak hands that are waiting for a big bounce.

We will see.

LONG TERM INDICATORS ARE TELLING DO NOT TRUST IN SP500 BOUNCE

I do not have too much time for writing these days, but I am writing some lines cause some friends are sending me emails asking for a piece of advice.

I decided long time ago not giving any piece of advice, cause the success in the stock market belong to the advisor's friend but the faults belong to the advisor. Instead of it I use to tell my friends what I am doing, because if I do not do that, they get angry if I earn money in the stock market.

So I tell you I am in cash, today 11/03/2009. I have been shorting some times since this bear market has began, but not know, the reason is because this market situation needs to be very focus on the intraday operation.

I do not need to operate everyday cause I am not a broker, I am a speculator like most of the professional of other fields who use the market for "saving".

I am preparing for fishing and hunting, so I have the tools I will hunt in the following days shorting in the bear market and I am waiting for fishing in the basin that precede to the bull market.


Briefly I will tell you 4 reasons for not buying long yet:

1 - SP500 A-D line does not says we have a bottom yet with a probability of 85%

2 - Put/call ratio trend says probably we are going to have another down leg with a probability of 75%.

3 - The volume on the bear trend has been increasing.

4 -The 200 day moving average says we are in bear market.

The reason for not being shorting is because I want to keep my cortex focused on analysing the market and with huge intraday movements it makes me to feel uncomfortable and my amygdale takes the control. I know that this makes me to take wrong decisions.

I will short for sure but I need to decide when to start again, and that beans to find the ideal time.

Hope this helps to you. My work mates are very happy to follow my stock markets movements cause they avoided additional losses copying my strategy.

Shortly I will tell you which ETFs I use for shorting.


Here you have the absolute laws written by Dickson G Watts for speculation:

1. Never Overtrade. To take an interest larger than the capital justifies is to invite disaster. With such an interest a fluctuation in the market unnerves the operator, and his judgment becomes worthless.

2. Never "Double Up"; that is, never completely and at once reverse a position. Being "long," for instance, do not "sell out" and go as much "short." This may occasionally succeed, but is very hazardous, for should the market begin again to advance, the mind reverts to its original opinion and the speculator "covers up" and "goes long" again. Should this last change be wrong, complete demoralization ensues. The change in the original position should have been made moderately, cautiously, thus keeping the judgment clear and preserving the balance of the mind.

3. "Run Quickly," or not at all; that is to say, act promptly at the first approach of danger, but failing to do this until others see the danger, hold on or close out part of the "interest."

4. Another rule is, when doubtful, reduce the amount of the interest; for either the mind is not satisfied with the position taken, or the interest is too large for safety. One man told another that he could not sleep on account of his position in the market; his friend judiciously and laconically replied: "Sell down to a sleeping point."

IS THE SP500 CHEAP OR EXPENSIVE?

Hello, long time since my last writing. I decided to simplify the site so I erased the old typings.

I was talking this night with somebody important to me, and I was a little scared about what she has done. She has bought some stocks and some of these stocks are banks. When I asked her why she has done this, she told me that obviously because the stocks are cheap.

So I decided to share some information with her and here it is. So if you are lucky it will help to you, but do not take it as a recommendation, the responsibility is yours and you should know some things before investing in the stock market. Do not you read a lot of information before you buy a new gadget?

Well take a look on the chart. As I cannot imagine the future I check if the market is efficient and whether the prices of the stocks have any sense.

In the chart you will find the prices that were paid for the stocks and the price that an investor should have paid for them (in red), based in the real performance of the SP500 .

I do the valuation of the stock price with a discounted cash flow for 10 years, and the interest rate considered in each moment is real long interest rate. So easy to do if you have the information.... A pity that we cannot have that information in advance.

Soon I will give you another piece of information that perhaps will tell you when to trigger your stocks buying anxiety. But calm down, this is not the moment yet.

Meanwhile I recommend to you one of the best places to learn, the Yale University, here you have a nice link http://www.irrationalexuberance.com/index.htm.

And remember being focus is the only way to control the reptilian brain.
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